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USC Professor Joel Hay: No scientific proof that social distancing works

Video Transcript

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get the all-clear to go back to work but
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the debate on whether it’s safe – or if
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we’ve flattened the curve enough
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continues here to speak more on this is
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USC professor of pharmaceutical and
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health economics Joel hey Joel good to
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see you this morning thank you for
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joining us
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yeah thanks for having me so there are
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two I would say on the extreme ends
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school of thoughts when it comes to
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getting back to work getting our economy
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running again one being you know let’s
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just open everything up and go back to
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work and then on the other end there’s
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no we haven’t done enough we need to
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stay home stay in this lockdown further
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you sort of represent the let’s open up
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let’s get back to work you’ve been
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questioning in articles that this idea
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of social distancing can you can you
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speak to that a little bit correct in
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fact there’s no basis there’s no
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scientific evidence to support social
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distancing with this particular virus
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c19 social distancing is for viruses
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that are very lethal but not that
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contagious and transmissible this is
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probably the most contagious virus we’ve
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ever seen I mean it leaped around the
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world in a matter of weeks or months
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probably was in Los Angeles and
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California generally last year I mean
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keep in mind this is the kovat 19 virus
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it is from last year and it’s been
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around for a long time and that’s what a
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lot of the serology data is now starting
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to show we just had a big study in LA
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County showing that about 70 times more
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people are positive for C 19 then their
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tests were showing when you go out and
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test asymptomatic people out in the
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community they are asymptomatic there
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see 19 positive and it’s not affecting
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them well yes and some of those studies
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are obviously in question still because
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the antigen tests have not proven to be
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100% accurate or effective but we are
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also learning that it has been in
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California earlier than then first
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reported based on an autopsy that was
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just not 100% effective is the idea of
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social closure
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they said that if we reduced office work
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if we shut down restaurants and
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non-essential businesses if we cut
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transportation if we shut down the
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schools that we were due spiral
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transmission to zero guess what
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none of that happened so all these
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people that question this or that
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they’re based their entire intervention
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of social distancing on no evidence I
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know plenty of evidence that the virus
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has been out there for a long time and
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we got to open things up I understand
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that it’s hard to you know to prove a
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negative but wouldn’t you say you’re
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saying there’s no science to prove that
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social distancing is working on a virus
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like this but wouldn’t you say by
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looking at New York you could say that
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the the opposite might be true that we
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don’t have evidence to show that it’s
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not working I mean you look at a densely
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populated area like New York and where
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it’s it’s very hard to socially distance
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a lot of people early on we’re not
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listening to the advice and yet we’ve
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seen how drastic and devastating the
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cases and deaths of covin 19 have been
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in a city like that well keep in mind
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that South Korea is even more dense than
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New York City and they’ve only had less
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than 250 deaths total and they’ve been
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involved in this longer than anybody
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else and they never shut down anything
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you can say that the New York City
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disaster was a lot due to panicked
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health care workers who did not have
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proper protective equipment and used
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ventilators which are now known not to
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be good for many c19 patients and can
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actually increase risk of death among
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many c19 patients so that was actually
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totally inappropriately done keep in
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mind a couple very important stats
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eighty percent of pregnant women in a
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recent study the only one that I’m not
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aware of so it’s the only one we know
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about
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we’re see 19 positive not a single baby
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born in the United States so far to my
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knowledge as see 19 and died because of
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see 19 so why are we shutting down the
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schools kids don’t affect it by this
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and then take prisoners 2.3 million
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American prisoners only 35 deaths forced
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social mixing less deaths and the rest
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of the country come on how do they
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explain that well I I think is it isn’t
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it not accurate to kind of take into the
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health of a population I mean if you’re
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talking about a younger population with
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without some of these comorbidities that
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go along with it it seems as though
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people are doing well with it but you
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take in elderly population and some of
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these other comorbidities like obesity
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and diabetes numbers of which the United
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States has the highest in the world
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it would seem that though that’s that’s
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also something to take into effect is
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the situation yeah do what we always do
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isolate them if you’re frail and sick
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and immune compromised maybe you got
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cancer or something yeah isolate
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yourself and make sure those people
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around you stay isolated but don’t
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isolate the young and healthy
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Sweden crew that that’s how you get the
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herd immunity that’s how you get the
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social mixing that’s how we’ve done it
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naturally for millions of years what is
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this nonsense you don’t shut down the
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globe or something that’s normal flu or
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even two to three times normal flu this
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is destroying millions of lives and
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killing about a hundred people for
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everyone it ostensibly saves well these
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are good discussions to have there’s a
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lot of debate going on about getting us
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back to work so we will continue to have
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the discussion in terms of the burden of
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this on everyone we have a survey that
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we would love your audience to get
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involved in and get their friends and
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acquaintances involved in and that’s at
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Joel Hakam we’re capturing the burden of
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this illness and it’s devastating all
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right Joel hey calm people can go there
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and fill that out Joel thank you for
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your take this morning thanks a lot well
06:32
local bike shops are experiencing a
06:34
spike in sales amid this
06:36
and a Maquis