Posted in

The truth about Mortality Rates

Video Transcript

00:00
professor Michael Leavitt he is the
00:03
winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for
00:05
chemistry he’s developed complex models
00:06
of chemical syntheses the professor of
00:09
structural biology at Stanford School of
00:11
Medicine and we’re gonna talk to him a
00:13
little bit because he was the first kind
00:14
of person I’ve seen the world of his
00:16
caliber in a questioning our current
00:19
approach to things he was the first one
00:20
to raise his hand and say guys you know
00:21
we don’t have enough information or
00:23
making these decisions and then you know
00:25
about prize-winner he has a pretty
00:26
powerful voice fortunately professor
00:28
lemon thank you so much for joining us
00:30
how are you today
00:30
thank you Tony it’s really great to be
00:33
here things a manager so professionally
00:34
by organization this is gonna be a great
00:36
interview thank you
00:37
oh thank you so much listen doc you were
00:41
the first person that I saw that you
00:43
know blew me away you talked about the
00:45
morbidity numbers and the projections to
00:48
the testing and you were trying to calm
00:49
people down from having so much fear you
00:52
know most of us the doctors all I know
00:54
that you know you you get fear your body
00:57
it reduces your immune system very you
00:58
know this is an immune issue to start
01:00
with so I like just to ask you what did
01:02
you see almost two months ago and the
01:04
very beginning of this that made you
01:05
raise your hand and say wait a second
01:07
there’s no need to panic we need to
01:09
reduce the fear here and we need to
01:11
relook at this because we’re making
01:13
decisions that quite frankly we don’t
01:15
have enough data for can you tell us
01:16
what took you on the journey and made
01:18
you speak up in this area basically I am
01:21
NOT an epidemiologist I’m not an MD but
01:23
I like numbers and I sort of got into
01:28
this accidentally through connections my
01:32
wife is a curator of Chinese art in
01:35
China in November we have friends there
01:37
in any case I had followed the outbreaks
01:41
in China from the end of January just
01:44
looking at the numbers making reports
01:45
getting very involved so how much of
01:48
medicines the people having somebody who
01:49
cared my first concern about the overall
01:52
death rate came when the Diamond
01:56
Princess cruise ship was becoming known
01:59
and I thought this would be a great
02:01
experiment because almost everyone was
02:03
infected we could try to work out what
02:06
was the not the case this rate but the
02:08
population death right because the
02:10
trouble is if you can’t believe in the
02:11
cases you need to know what fraction
02:13
of a certain population will be will be
02:17
suffering one problem I had over diamond
02:20
princess was is that I didn’t actually
02:21
know the age profile it turns out that
02:25
more than half the people are over 65
02:27
when you look at the death rate from the
02:29
Diamond Princess you find that for a
02:32
regular population or old people
02:35
something like quite 1 percent 1 in 1000
02:39
were dying on the Diamond Princess that
02:42
is higher than flu but it’s not it’s
02:45
maybe it’s factor 2 or 3 higher than flu
02:47
so when I saw this I realized that maybe
02:50
this was whistling flu but it wasn’t
02:52
like SARS it wasn’t a 10% death rate
02:56
since then just a few minutes ago I was
02:59
looking at a paper from marine princess
03:01
and I now realize that that situation
03:04
could have provided everything we need
03:06
to know for dealing with Krogen they’re
03:09
not found many many asymptomatic cases
03:12
on the ship they found a much much
03:14
higher effective infection rate so that
03:17
was the basic information that made me
03:19
realize that it wasn’t much worse and
03:22
true I should say though that all my
03:25
colleagues at Stanford tell me flu is a
03:27
very serious disease said you know don’t
03:30
plate likely with flu yeah you’re so
03:33
right I mean what’s crazy is you know we
03:35
keep hearing the descriptions of the flu
03:37
like it’s nothing but we all know that
03:39
it kills elderly people and we have
03:41
anywhere from thirty thousand eighty
03:42
thousand people a year the die the flu
03:43
in the US 650,000 in the world you bring
03:47
up a really important point when we turn
03:48
on the news the average person what do
03:50
we believe we believe that we’ve been
03:51
told we see some of the doctors doctor
03:54
foul Chi and some people give us some
03:56
info we watch the news and we have a red
03:58
bar showing how many deaths have how
04:00
many new cases that go on even during
04:01
the commercials and it’s produced
04:02
enormous fear but you made a point which
04:05
is that the truth of the matter is we
04:08
all have viruses in our bodies all the
04:09
time on epstein-barr there’s you know
04:12
220 million people in the u.s. that will
04:14
have it at their time according to the
04:17
CDC 90 percent of the population is
04:19
gonna is expose those to it around the
04:21
world yet we’re not experiencing
04:23
epstein-barr most of us we have
04:24
streptococcus in the back of the
04:26
throat we don’t have strep thought we
04:27
have cancer cells in our body we don’t
04:29
have cancer it’s really a balance and so
04:32
one of the things you brought up and I
04:33
was really interested in it was seeing
04:35
that these tests that we’re doing are
04:37
finding the virus and people keep
04:39
talking about the number of cases and
04:41
the more we test as I understand it
04:43
correct me if I’m wrong the more virus
04:44
of course we’re going to find the more
04:46
cases but what really matters is the
04:48
death rate can you just address for us
04:50
you know what does this really mean this
04:52
so but the death rate in China it turned
04:56
out that there were two very very
04:57
different death rates inside who bear
05:00
the death rate was almost 10 times
05:01
higher than the deaths right out of
05:03
school day and that didn’t make sense
05:04
because it’s the same disease it also
05:07
turns out that this is the first time a
05:09
diseases be detected by looking for the
05:12
DNA or the RNA of the virus so it isn’t
05:15
diseases anomalies detected by
05:17
physicians looking for symptoms and you
05:19
know you don’t know how much virus is
05:21
needed this ended up being I think cases
05:24
became a big issue for political reasons
05:27
unfortunately there’s a huge amount of
05:29
politics in order of this everywhere
05:32
I am very a political person I actually
05:35
watch a sports game and I would either
05:37
side to win I don’t really care I like
05:39
the game is very unusual and you know I
05:42
think that unfortunately science is
05:45
difficult and you can’t be partisan and
05:48
I think that it was a dynamic here and a
05:52
dynamic which I found very anti
05:55
scientific that let the decisions being
05:58
made I think that the other thing that
06:01
one has to remember and I again I’m
06:02
shocked by this epidemiologist don’t
06:05
mind being wrong on the high side so if
06:07
they come into it’s you know and this
06:09
meeting any other field you need to have
06:12
a balanced era you know being 10 percent
06:15
wrong on the low side is exactly the
06:18
same as being 10 percent wrong on the
06:20
high side if you learn it then we all
06:22
adjust to be wrong a thousand times on
06:24
the high side it’s much much better than
06:27
being wrong by a factor of two on the
06:29
low side so they tend to exaggerate the
06:32
World Health Organization has a record
06:34
of exaggerating and I think they do this
06:35
deliberately because they feel that the
06:37
public won’t pay attention unless
06:40
they really exaggerate the trouble is as
06:42
you said with huge collateral damage
06:45
caused by the consequences of things
06:47
like lock down of shutting down
06:49
economies people during hungry people
06:52
losing their savings which apparently is
06:54
not part of the epidemiologists job to
06:56
consider so what are these issues lead
06:58
to an unbalanced situation
06:59
scientifically now the you bring up the
07:03
most important point the decisions that
07:05
were made were made based on estimating
07:07
China’s morbidity rates between three
07:09
and a half and a four and a half percent
07:10
and you still hear the media four and
07:12
five percent broadcasts of morbidity and
07:14
we now know that’s not true and yet it
07:16
continues to be promoted but you could
07:19
see why some would make a decision based
07:20
on that and you know they they did their
07:22
models you know when people talk about
07:24
algorithms or models that most people
07:26
are realizes you should put the word
07:27
guesses next to that because they’re
07:29
educated guesses by people’s opinions
07:31
what they think it’s gonna be and you
07:33
know the numbers that the CDC put out
07:35
the NIH foot out doctor about you put
07:37
out I wouldn’t want to be in their
07:37
position by the way a pretty rough
07:38
position but their numbers were anywhere
07:41
I’m from two hundred thousand to two
07:42
point two million if I which group you
07:43
did two million was beside and that was
07:45
with social distancing because some
07:47
people are saying all we saved everybody
07:48
with social distancing but those were
07:50
numbers with social distancing with the
07:51
projections and now it’s looking like in
07:53
the US perhaps a hundred thousand people
07:55
and any death is insane
07:56
but as you know two years ago in 2018
07:59
there eighty thousand people died the
08:00
flu and you know they’re 39 to 57
08:03
million people according to CDC that are
08:05
infected right now with the flu and we
08:07
have 1.2 million with koban with similar
08:10
morbidity rates as you now pointed out
08:11
so I guess the the real question is we
08:14
have new data but we haven’t changed
08:16
what we’re doing and we also have data
08:18
from both countries and states that
08:20
didn’t comply which are very few there’s
08:23
only what do we have I think it’s four
08:24
countries four countries in the world
08:26
that did not shut down create
08:28
emergencies and shut down their
08:30
economies so let me take a quick look at
08:32
these to give you an idea if you take a
08:35
look at where the shutdown was the
08:36
strongest and most extreme social
08:38
distancing you can look in the US but if
08:40
you look at New York and New Jersey you
08:42
could see very quickly New York has you
08:44
know stayed in York 19 million people
08:46
and 25,000 deaths New Jersey is eight
08:49
point eight with eight thousand five
08:51
hundred forty nine deaths now
08:52
go get lost in the numbers just take a
08:54
look at this if you look at the top five
08:56
countries you can see the deaths 400,000
08:59
you can see what they are but you gotta
09:01
just four population these are the four
09:03
countries that did not shut down and
09:05
they did not legally require any social
09:07
distancing many people are talking about
09:08
Sweden because there’s 10 million people
09:10
in Sweden and there’s only 2900 deaths
09:13
and if we went the city of New York it’s
09:15
about 9 million people with about 18,000
09:18
deaths
09:18
so the percentage per capita for a
09:21
hundred thousand is through the roof and
09:22
in Sweden as you know Sweden has not
09:25
shut down they’ve had their school’s
09:26
their preschools and the great schools
09:28
open the restaurants have been open
09:30
people not forced to stand in line you
09:32
know to get inside of a store and
09:34
anything that major so no mandate you
09:37
know they ask people to practice social
09:38
distancing but interestingly enough some
09:41
people said well Sweden does have more
09:43
deaths in some Norwegian countries but
09:45
when you compare them by a ratio to
09:47
France or you take them to Italy or you
09:50
take them to the top five countries
09:52
their per capita is way lower and they
09:55
didn’t do any of these things plus of
09:56
the 2,900 deaths again as you pointed
09:58
out earlier 80% of the Swedish faster
10:01
Batool 65 65 plus and 40% are from 80 to
10:05
90 years old
10:07
Japan is mind boggling you know all four
10:09
countries by the way did not have a
10:12
major break out the ones that didn’t
10:13
practice what we’ve been talking about
10:14
I’m not telling people that are
10:15
listening don’t practice with the
10:17
government’s telling you don’t like the
10:18
social distancing outside what I’m
10:19
saying I just want to reduce the fear
10:21
and have you addressed this Japan is 127
10:23
so 7 million people they reported 558
10:27
deaths and total it’s the slowest
10:29
progression in the world they didn’t put
10:31
their cities in lockdown in fact they
10:32
had what he called dance places open her
10:36
clubs open up until the two weeks ago
10:38
they got so much negative feedback and
10:39
of course you know some people say well
10:41
New York you know look if the entire
10:43
United States was Japan we’d have
10:45
roughly 1500 deaths my population
10:48
numbers somebody say yeah but New York
10:50
is more compressed is not more
10:52
compressed and Doug you if you ever try
10:53
to get on a bus in Tokyo or our train
10:56
and took you you know what I’m talking
10:57
about so you talk about herd immunity
10:59
the people in Sweden are saying we’re
11:01
almost to herd immunity because we
11:02
didn’t shut down tell me a little bit
11:05
about herd immunity
11:06
and tell me why are these countries that
11:07
didn’t practice anything would teach
11:09
these countries do not have giant
11:11
breakouts the statistical differences
11:13
even the Norwegian countries are you
11:15
know statistically insignificant so and
11:18
and its older people you pointed out so
11:21
can you address the idea explain to
11:22
people and herd immunity is howling nor
11:24
we look at viruses and perhaps tell us
11:26
why are these countries doing so well
11:28
compared or else it can’t be population
11:31
density when you bring Tokyo into this
11:32
okay so herd immunity is when people
11:36
become sufficiently immune so that the
11:38
virus doesn’t spread but rather than
11:40
getting to the immunological side of
11:42
that we can just simply say what level
11:45
of death justice tend to stop and you
11:48
can look at places like northern Italy
11:49
Spain France Belgium New York City that
11:53
has been heavily hit the diamond
11:55
princess and they all seem to stop and
11:58
around one in a thousand deaths which is
12:01
I think in New York it’s one point three
12:03
in a thousand other places it’s less it
12:06
seems to be this natural saturation
12:08
limit you can call it herd immunity
12:11
it may be herd immunity combined with
12:13
built-in immunity but whatever happens
12:16
it does seem to be a level that we
12:19
cannot exceed I always thought that the
12:21
diamond princess was a great experiment
12:23
to try to inspect everybody and even
12:26
there they didn’t manage to get
12:28
everybody infected so I think that there
12:31
is this saturation limit the saturation
12:34
limits actually depends on the country
12:37
the country of old people then they were
12:40
more effectively the death curves the
12:43
death profile for coronavirus is
12:46
basically the same as old age or
12:49
infirmity so for this reason you can
12:52
actually say that when the number of
12:54
deaths you need to reach the saturation
12:57
point ie around one a thousand is about
13:01
one month of normal death in Italy the
13:05
death rate is 11% and you’d expect you
13:09
know one one point of that other
13:12
countries would have blower deaths rates
13:13
a country like Ireland or Israel with a
13:15
very young population will probably
13:17
saturate at around a half
13:19
to attend to thousands of people and New
13:22
York is differently you were saying that
13:25
the age profile is 80% above 65 it’s
13:30
actually more than 90 percent above 65
13:32
in all of Europe there were nine percent
13:35
of the deaths below 65 from coronavirus
13:38
and this doesn’t come from country
13:40
reporting it comes from the reporting of
13:42
excess deaths over all those countries
13:45
and excess deaths you don’t have to say
13:47
what the person died from you just look
13:49
in a certain killer and it’s a big jump
13:51
of deaths but in New York City from what
13:53
I’m seeing there’s been a much greater
13:55
number of younger people succumbing and
13:59
my guess is is that due to different
14:01
health systems and so on coronavirus is
14:05
basically taking out people who are not
14:07
very healthy either because of
14:08
pre-existing conditions or of old age so
14:12
New York right now has a 1.3 in a
14:17
thousand deaths rates if you compare
14:20
different boroughs of New York Manhattan
14:22
is about half of the Bronx even 1/3 of
14:24
the Bronx so again it’s depending on the
14:27
level of privileges for people but still
14:30
I think the same number of one or two
14:33
months of additional death now this
14:36
might sound like a huge amount but it’s
14:38
not that different from from flu the
14:40
total number of excess deaths reported
14:43
by a website called euro mama up till
14:46
today is a hundred and sixty thousand
14:49
maybe a hundred and seventy thousand
14:51
basically that’s about the same number
14:53
of people who died in an excess way in
14:56
the flu season of 2017-18 they only have
15:00
records going back for years they don’t
15:01
have the flu season of 2009 which was
15:04
much more severe so basically my guess
15:06
is it’s going to be maybe one half times
15:10
more excess this X is just very
15:12
important because if I if I’m very sick
15:15
and that I’m labeled as a corona death
15:17
that’s fine except I won’t die again
15:20
next month so basically if you look at
15:22
the total deaths each person is only
15:25
counted once whereas if you assume that
15:27
everyone who dies of Corona is extra
15:29
you’re over counting you
15:32
interview and in it you talked about
15:34
that people are being qualified ask Ovid
15:37
19 or County if you die with Khurana 19
15:41
we’re counting as you died of chrono 18
15:43
and so yeah you were talking about
15:45
looking at numbers and what they’re
15:46
telling us we don’t have enough
15:48
information you said the small amounts
15:49
of others can be detected almost
15:50
everyone can die no matter what the
15:52
cause and could be called coronavirus
15:54
they killed you can you explain that
15:56
okay great so my my my last point is
15:58
that essentially the way the virus is
16:01
detected is by a very beautiful
16:03
exquisitely sensitive by the chemical
16:06
method called polymerase chain reaction
16:09
or PCR for short and what it does is it
16:11
takes a little piece of your DNA and it
16:14
keeps on making copies and it might make
16:16
40 copies each time growing up many many
16:19
millions for and in the end you say well
16:22
is this bit of interesting we copied
16:25
over time coming from the corona virus
16:27
and it’s this is the first time a
16:30
disease has been detected this way and I
16:32
think we’re not yet calibrated on the
16:34
one hand we’re missing people were
16:36
asymptomatic on the other hand we have
16:38
marking people who have other conditions
16:41
so I don’t in any way belittle me the
16:45
the low this has been on the people that
16:46
have had to work or the health
16:47
professionals but it is possible I think
16:49
to die with corona virus and maybe one
16:53
so whatever reason I this I don’t
16:55
understand there’s been this race to the
16:57
top as you mentioned to try to maximize
16:59
death and you know it can economist use
17:02
something called years of life loss when
17:04
I mentioned this in Israel and was
17:06
almost thrown out of the country because
17:08
every death is a whole life in itself
17:10
and that’s true but you know if we if I
17:13
want I’m 73 if I wanted a heart
17:16
transplant now no one would give me one
17:18
if I wanted to get life insurance now no
17:20
one will give it to me so is it only the
17:23
insurance companies that know what life
17:24
really means I don’t know these are open
17:26
questions hi Mona thank you I have one
17:28
last question do one ask based on what
17:30
we’re seeing with both Sweden Japan a
17:33
Thailand and so forth that the numbers
17:35
are incredibly small and we have a
17:37
situation there where obviously you know
17:39
they’ve not done the social distancing
17:41
they’ve not shut down their economies
17:42
they not created emergencies we’re
17:45
hearing that social just
17:46
Tsing saved us and we’ve heard all this
17:48
discussion to flatten the curve flatten
17:49
the curve and I think most people being
17:50
flattened the curb means we’re gonna
17:51
have less deaths but statistically all
17:53
we’re doing is trying to spread them out
17:55
so it doesn’t overwhelm you know the
17:56
hospital system so the question is do we
17:59
know scientifically the social
18:01
distancing actually produces a result
18:02
that’s worthwhile right from the very
18:05
beginning the numbers about this virus
18:07
showed that it never grows exponentially
18:10
this virus is self-limiting
18:11
probably because of the asymmetry too
18:14
many cases will come back to that the
18:16
other thing is social distancing
18:19
lockdown is a very very crude form of
18:22
social distancing it probably goes back
18:24
to the Middle Ages probably not allowing
18:26
intercity travel because if a city is
18:29
Corona free and one way to reduce the
18:32
slow the growth is to keep the fires
18:35
burning in the places where they’re
18:37
burning and not spread to new areas
18:39
thank you for that but it’s Tony Robbins
18:42
listen if you’re watching this right now
18:44
I’m giving you a quick update because
18:45
dr. Michael Leavitt the Nobel Prize
18:47
winner who’s been a leader in this field
18:49
had just sent me an email with some
18:51
interesting facts I just want to give
18:52
them to you and we’ll put a link down
18:53
below for you as well because it’s
18:54
fascinating he says Tony and they had
18:56
patched attached PDF I showed for the
18:58
first time that Europe’s covered 19
19:00
excess deaths plateaued at 150 3006 15%
19:06
more just 15% more than the 2017-2018
19:09
flu season were the same age raid counts
19:12
of morbidity in deaths
19:13
he said the similarity has been noted by
19:16
most nobly by dr. Anthony Fauci and
19:18
others in the New England Journal on
19:20
February 28th and he said mine is the
19:22
first large analysis with a well over a
19:24
hundred thousand deaths in each epidemic
19:26
using consistent and gives the euro Momo
19:29
data that’s what they use their for the
19:32
same group of countries of the total
19:33
population of over 250 million people
19:35
meaning this is the largest scale test
19:37
like this and he said one of the most
19:39
interesting things is the age range that
19:42
come out of this of who actually
19:43
affected is truly surprising to some
19:46
just 8% is what I want you to get of all
19:49
the deaths in the entire world all the
19:51
deaths the United States now getting
19:53
close to hundred thousand the United
19:54
States just 8% of those people on
19:56
average are under the age of 65
19:59
8% and then secondly 50% of all deaths
20:04
are over 85 years old Lee notices in
20:07
most countries the average age that
20:08
someone lives to a 78 so pretty
20:11
interesting to note and you’ll see it if
20:12
you’ll stay with this podcast and I
20:14
don’t know if you’ll see this separately
20:15
or you’ll see it with dr. michael evans
20:16
interview but you’ll also hear the head
20:18
of the cleveland clinic talking about
20:20
that half of the deaths you’re gonna see
20:22
in this country are people that are from
20:23
two states new york new jersey been hit
20:26
very hard but also almost half of those
20:28
across the country have come from people
20:30
in nursing homes and we need to focus on
20:32
taking care of them the other half
20:34
sixty-six percent are over the age of 80
20:36
if you’re under the age of 70 your
20:38
chances of having called it it’s not
20:40
getting it’s not cases remember cases
20:42
everybody talks about cases what matters
20:44
is not cases ninety eight percent of
20:46
people have no symptoms or mild symptoms
20:48
what matters is deaths and so this is
20:50
really encouraging news so I wanted you
20:52
have it and we’ll put links down there
20:53
so you can do your own research as well
20:55
thanks your time
21:03
you